SaaS 102 #12 Why We Should Focus on the Things That Never Change
“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’
I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’
And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two - - because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.”
Jeff Bezos – chairman and founder of Amazon
“Even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind.” This saying, first coined in 2015 by Lei Jun, a Chinese billionaire entrepreneur, has been influential in business circles over the last few years. The “whirlwind” in the phrase is a metaphor for a hot new trend, and the phrase suggests that almost any entrepreneur or business can succeed if they find themselves in the middle of the next big thing.
But as one after another internet trend has come and gone, people have started to remember that there was a second half to this saying, too: “But as soon as the trend passes, most pigs will crash to their deaths.”
In 2018, many people said to me: “You should get into peer-to-peer lending, it’s a massive trend at the moment, and you can make money easily.” I still remember that clearly because it left such a deep impression on me.
With so many people talking to me about peer-to-peer lending, I thought about their recommendations in detail. Thinking about it made me realize that peer-to-peer finance wasn’t sustainable. Interest rates were so high that nobody would be able to keep up repayments in the long term.
And as it happened, the peer-to-peer lending trend passed within a year. Countless internet finance companies went bankrupt and the people behind them ran away.
After that, all kinds of other trends kept on emerging. For example, in 2019 and 2020 we saw trends for online housing and apartment rentals. Between 2020 and 2021, the trend was for online education.
A lot of companies who fly high on the back of hot trends are bathed in glory for a short while. Just a few years later, though, the same companies have fallen right back down to earth.
That’s why, rather than getting caught up in the latest whirlwind, rather than chasing ever-changing trends, I prefer the Jeff Bezos approach:
Focus on the things that do not change, and build business strategies and products based on those things.
AfterShip was founded in 2012. As of 2023, we have already been in business for more than 10 years. And I believe AfterShip can continue successfully for another 10 years, another 20 years, or even longer.
And because we base our business on those things that are stable in time, the longer we spend developing expertise in our field, the stronger we become.
How can we determine what will not change?
There are two methods I’ll share that can help to determine if something is likely to change or not:
Method 1: Ask the same person the same question at three different points in time, and see if the answer you receive changes.
If you get the same answer each of the three times you ask the question, then you can be mostly sure that the thing you have asked about doesn’t change over time.
Method 2: Ask three different people the same question at the same point in time, and see if you receive the same answer from each person.
If you also receive the same answer from each person, then in all probability you’ve found something which does not change, and can follow through with your plans based on that.
For example, if you’re looking to make a purchase, then, assuming you receive the same product no matter what the price you pay, then whether I ask you 10 years ago, now, or 10 years into the future whether you would prefer to pay a lower or higher price, your answer will always be the same. You will always prefer to pay a lower price.
And you aren’t the only person who prefers to pay lower prices. As long as it doesn’t involve compromising on product quality, other people would also prefer to pay lower prices whenever possible.
We can therefore be sure that “people want to pay lower prices as long as they don’t have to compromise on quality,” is a rule that will not change. Once we know that, we can apply this rule when we are designing and creating products.
I started out asking myself questions like these:
- “Do people who shop online want to know when they can receive their delivery?”
- “Do merchants want to reduce labor costs by automating delivery tracking?”
- “Do people running eCommerce businesses want to get more repeat customers?”
- “Do people running eCommerce businesses hope their customers remember their brand?”
First, I looked at the answers to these questions from a time point of view, checking how these questions would have been answered ten years ago, and how they would be answered now or ten years from now.
Then, I looked at the answers to these questions from a people point of view, seeing what the answers would be if I asked ten different people.
I concluded that everyone would answer these questions in the same way, so I identified the following as something that would not change:
“Automating delivery tracking can effectively reduce costs for eCommerce businesses. If eCommerce customers can be told accurately when they will receive deliveries, this will help online merchants to increase their brand value.”
Based on this information, we can build a product strategy around helping eCommerce merchants to increase brand value.
What are the benefits of focusing on things that don’t change?
Once we’ve found which things are stable in time, there are many benefits to basing our actions on our discoveries.
Benefit 1: We can concentrate effectively
When we follow a certain business path we are certain to run into plenty of problems. But if our business path is focused on an aspect of life which is constant and will not change, then the challenges this path throws in our way are also unlikely to change. This makes it easier for us to concentrate our energy and our resources on resolving these problems and challenges.
Supposing that to follow a certain path I need to resolve 10 problems, but I am only able to resolve one problem today, there’s no need for me to worry. I can continue working hard to solve the remaining nine problems the following day. No matter how much time it takes me, I can resolve all the problems eventually.
But if I was dealing with a business path where the problems I was facing were changing every day, then the things I would need to be doing to resolve those ever-changing problems would also be changing constantly. The costs of frequently changing course of action would be very high, and my work would likely be ineffective.
Benefit 2: We can attract the right people
Each person has their individual talents and strengths. The type of person we want to recruit will depend on the direction we want to move our business in.
For example, if I was planning to become an eCommerce merchant one day, trying to get into real estate the next day, and hoping to make it in the gaming industry the day after that, I wouldn’t really have a chance of finding and recruiting the right people to help me build my business.
This is because it doesn’t matter how outstanding any individual person is, they still take time to learn and develop skills.
But if we set a clear direction, and make sure we decide that direction on clear principles that will not change in 10 or even in 20 years, we can then attract people who identify with and have the right skills for the direction we’re moving in.
Once we find the right talented people, we can help them to develop their skills, work with them over the long term, and together with their help complete the journey which we have set for ourselves.
Benefit 3: If we know where we are going, even though we’ll fall down on the way, we’ll have the conviction to get back up again
Just as the CEO of Huawei said: “Our general direction should be correct.”
Many of the difficulties and pitfalls we face in life are unavoidable. No matter who you are, falling down is painful. When we fall down, when we face failure, we feel confused and doubt ourselves.
But when you have a long-term goal, and when you know which things are permanent and will not change, then even when you encounter pitfalls, you’ll be able to find the drive to get up and carry on moving forward.
If you don’t doubt that what you are doing is correct, then you won’t get mired in confusion, hesitation, and doubt, wondering if you should change your direction. You’ll know that although you have some difficulties and setbacks in front of you, as long as your general direction is correct, you’ll reach your destination in the end.
Benefit 4: The longer you persist along one path, the more advantages you gain
Following a B2B strategy is very different to following a B2C strategy. When you follow a B2B strategy, you can’t just create a product, throw some money into it, and expect to see quick returns.
When we develop software and services for businesses, it often takes five, 10, or even 20 years to start seeing satisfying results.
That’s why I often say:
“If you do something very simple, and only look one or two years into the future, you will find you have many competitors. But if you can persevere and do the same simple thing for 10 years, you will find you have far fewer competitors.”
(That is, providing you’re still alive and kicking after the 10 long years has passed.😅)
Most people are not willing to spend 10 years developing themselves or their business in a single field. Most people will only want to chase the short-term trends that are right in front of their eyes. Interested readers can read more about this phenomenon in another of my Saas 102 articles: “How to Grow Your Career with a Growth Mindset”
Over the long term, the longer you persist in a field, the stronger you will become in that field.
We’ve already followed the same simple business path for 10 years. If other people want to overtake us, they’ll have to simplify what we do even further. That will be really difficult for them.
Summary
In recent years, dividends from the mobile internet field have started to dwindle. More people have started paying attention to B2B strategies. And as an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, international eCommerce has seen explosive growth.
So, for those of us already working as B2B international eCommerce SaaS providers, our field is now in vogue in the eyes of others. Many people say we are lucky to have found ourselves at the center of the latest hot new trend, and there’s also no shortage of people doing their best to squeeze their way into the industry to get a piece of the action.
But in fact, we’ve never intentionally chased after trends. The truth is quite the opposite; by the time our industry hit the spotlight we’d already been working in the field and building our expertise for ten years.
This has come about because 10 years ago I believed in providing service to international eCommerce businesses. I believed that helping merchants increase their brand value and do better business was something that had real long-term value, value that wouldn’t change in 10 or even 20 years.
I’m well aware that in this world, not a day goes by without new ideas, new technologies, and new trends emerging. There are countless people who want to predict the future, who want to know how the world will change in the next 10 years.
But rather than following trends, rather trying to follow the way the world changes, I’d encourage you to ask yourself “which things will not change?”. Then when you decide your direction, form your strategy, create your products, you can do so based on your knowledge of what is stable in time. Doing so will give you a real chance to create successful SaaS products that have sustainable value in the long term.
I'm Teddy, Co-Founder & CEO of AfterShip, SaaS 102 is a series of articles where I share my experience in SaaS startups.
We are looking for great SaaS sales talent and welcome you to join us at careers.aftership.com.
(Article translated by Joseph O'Neill)